Educational and labour market forecasting activities in the Federal Republic of Germany and Austria: a survey of methods and some conceptual afterthoughts

Clement, Werner
IIEP Seminar Paper, 44
38 p.

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Clement suggests forecasting is to some extent, an outgrowth and reflection of political and economic systems. Public education with its external regulation mechanisms is compared with the labour market which, although free in principle, is also subject to public labour administration bureaucracy. After noting the main developments in educational and labour market forecasting activities, the major methodological characteristics are analysed a)the basic manpower requirement/social demand model b)extensions to the basic models (termed protective belt) c)an alternative model d)full and partial models. The analysis is organised upon an algebraic formulation of the core manpower supply and demand forecast which serves as a reference for the development of the other models discussed. Brief examples are given of empirical structural models. The shortcomings in the basic approach are discussed along with the contributions made towards rectifying these weaknesses through the extension models of functional qualification, flexibility and optimization concepts. Econometric model building, with its behavioural equations, is chosen for an alternative to the basic model. In conclusion, the author makes a plea for evaluating forecasts and for matching economic systems with forecasting concepts, using methods which capture "real world behaviour"